“Normally when Cruise cars get stuck, they ask for help from HQ, and operators there give the vehicles advice or escape routes. Sometimes that fails or they can’t resolve a problem, and they send a human driver to rescue the vehicle. According to data released by Cruise last week, that happens about an average of once/day though they claim it has been getting better.”
From the Forbes write-up of GM Cruise’s debacle this weekend. I think this should update people downward somewhat in FSD % complete. I think commenters here are being too optimistic about current AI, particularly in the physical world. We will likely need to get closer to AGI for economically-useful physical automation to emerge, given how pre-trained humans seem to be for physical locomotion and how difficult the problem is for minds without that pre-training.
So in my opinion, there actually is some significant probability that we either have AGI prior to or very soon after robotaxis, at least the without-a-hitch, no weird errors, slide-deck presentation form of it your average person thinks of when one says “robotaxis”.
“Normally when Cruise cars get stuck, they ask for help from HQ, and operators there give the vehicles advice or escape routes. Sometimes that fails or they can’t resolve a problem, and they send a human driver to rescue the vehicle. According to data released by Cruise last week, that happens about an average of once/day though they claim it has been getting better.”
From the Forbes write-up of GM Cruise’s debacle this weekend. I think this should update people downward somewhat in FSD % complete. I think commenters here are being too optimistic about current AI, particularly in the physical world. We will likely need to get closer to AGI for economically-useful physical automation to emerge, given how pre-trained humans seem to be for physical locomotion and how difficult the problem is for minds without that pre-training.
So in my opinion, there actually is some significant probability that we either have AGI prior to or very soon after robotaxis, at least the without-a-hitch, no weird errors, slide-deck presentation form of it your average person thinks of when one says “robotaxis”.