The floor for AI wages is always going to be whatever the market will bear, the question is how much margin will the AGI developer be able to take, which depends on how much the AGI models commoditize and how much pricing power the lab retains, not on how much it costs to serve except as a floor. We should not expect otherwise.
There is a cost for AGI at which humans are competitive.
If AGI becomes competitive at captial costs that no firm can raise, it is not competitive, and we will be waiting on algorithmics again.
Algorithmic improvement is not predictable by me, so I have a wide spread there.
I do think that provisioning vs hiring and flexibility in retasking will be a real point of competition, in addition to raw prices
I think we agree that AGI has the potential to undercut labor. I was fairly certain my spread was 5% uneconomical, 20% right for some actors, 50% large dispaclemt and 25 percent of total winning, and I was trying to work out what levels of pricing look uneconomical and what frictions are important to compare.
The floor for AI wages is always going to be whatever the market will bear, the question is how much margin will the AGI developer be able to take, which depends on how much the AGI models commoditize and how much pricing power the lab retains, not on how much it costs to serve except as a floor. We should not expect otherwise.
There is a cost for AGI at which humans are competitive.
If AGI becomes competitive at captial costs that no firm can raise, it is not competitive, and we will be waiting on algorithmics again.
Algorithmic improvement is not predictable by me, so I have a wide spread there.
I do think that provisioning vs hiring and flexibility in retasking will be a real point of competition, in addition to raw prices
I think we agree that AGI has the potential to undercut labor. I was fairly certain my spread was 5% uneconomical, 20% right for some actors, 50% large dispaclemt and 25 percent of total winning, and I was trying to work out what levels of pricing look uneconomical and what frictions are important to compare.