This feels like an attempt to reverse the Dunning–Kruger effect. Not exactly, but there is a similar assumption that “people who believe an incorrect X are usually unaware that answers other than X exist (otherwise they would start doubting whether X is the correct answer)”.
Which probably works well for non-controversial topics. You may be wrong about the capital of Australia, but you don’t expect there to be a controversy about this topic. If you are aware that many people disagree with you on what “the capital of Australia”, you are aware there is a lot of ignorance about this topic, and you have probably double-checked your answer. People who get it wrong probably don’t even think about the alternatives.
But, like in the example whpearson gave, there are situations where people are aware that others disagree with them, but they have a handy explanation, such as “it’s all a Big Pharma conspiracy”, in which case they will neither reduce their certainty, nor research the topic impartially.
In other words, this may work for honest mistakes, but not for tribalism.
“it’s all a Big Pharma conspiracy”, in which case they will neither reduce their certainty, nor research the topic impartially.
The method presupposes rational actors, but is somewhat resilient to non-rational ones. If the majority of people know of the conspiracy theorists, then the conspiracy theory will not be a surprisingly popular option.
This feels like an attempt to reverse the Dunning–Kruger effect. Not exactly, but there is a similar assumption that “people who believe an incorrect X are usually unaware that answers other than X exist (otherwise they would start doubting whether X is the correct answer)”.
Which probably works well for non-controversial topics. You may be wrong about the capital of Australia, but you don’t expect there to be a controversy about this topic. If you are aware that many people disagree with you on what “the capital of Australia”, you are aware there is a lot of ignorance about this topic, and you have probably double-checked your answer. People who get it wrong probably don’t even think about the alternatives.
But, like in the example whpearson gave, there are situations where people are aware that others disagree with them, but they have a handy explanation, such as “it’s all a Big Pharma conspiracy”, in which case they will neither reduce their certainty, nor research the topic impartially.
In other words, this may work for honest mistakes, but not for tribalism.
The method presupposes rational actors, but is somewhat resilient to non-rational ones. If the majority of people know of the conspiracy theorists, then the conspiracy theory will not be a surprisingly popular option.