Also I don’t see why you think cryonics doesn’t make sense as alternative option.
I was responding to this point. The “cryonics is better than nothing” argument doesn’t make cryonics an alternative option to immortality by friendly AI. If Bob thinks cryonics has a 10% chance of making him immortal and thinks AI will have a 20% chance of making him immortal and an 80% chance of destroying the world, then the superhuman AI route is more likely to lead to Bob’s immortality than cryonics.
I didn’t say that “cryonics is better than nothing”, I said I think it has decent odds of success. To spell it out, I think the success probability is higher than the increased probability of friendly AI in my lifetime from acceleration(which is the relevant comparison) while imposing fewer costs on future generations. And I think that if you made it your life’s work, you could probably improve those odds, up to 80% perhaps(conditional on future people wanting to revive you)
I was responding to this point. The “cryonics is better than nothing” argument doesn’t make cryonics an alternative option to immortality by friendly AI. If Bob thinks cryonics has a 10% chance of making him immortal and thinks AI will have a 20% chance of making him immortal and an 80% chance of destroying the world, then the superhuman AI route is more likely to lead to Bob’s immortality than cryonics.
I didn’t say that “cryonics is better than nothing”, I said I think it has decent odds of success. To spell it out, I think the success probability is higher than the increased probability of friendly AI in my lifetime from acceleration(which is the relevant comparison) while imposing fewer costs on future generations. And I think that if you made it your life’s work, you could probably improve those odds, up to 80% perhaps(conditional on future people wanting to revive you)