Well, maybe the people who trust their feelings do so because their feelings work correctly. Who knows what the feelings system does behind the scenes.
With regards to explicitly rational predictions, unless the person in question is doing boatloads of mathematics correctly to arrive at conclusion, it is not a case of rational process.
One thing to keep in mind is that overwhelming majority of people can’t use their ‘rational reasoning’ to think their way out of the Monty Hall problem (not even when facing repeating monty hall problem, when, if they reason that switching does not matter, they could switch half of the time and get a feeling over the time that switching gives more wins—that’s how pigeons and little children solve monty hall correctly).
It is not type 1 reasoning vs type 2 reasoning here. It is type 1 reasoning versus no reasoning at all. People, overwhelmingly, can’t reason explicitly about vast majority of problems they encounter; their explicit reasoning is only usable for producing sequences of symbols for presentation. (i.e. speech)
Well, maybe the people who trust their feelings do so because their feelings work correctly. Who knows what the feelings system does behind the scenes.
With regards to explicitly rational predictions, unless the person in question is doing boatloads of mathematics correctly to arrive at conclusion, it is not a case of rational process.
One thing to keep in mind is that overwhelming majority of people can’t use their ‘rational reasoning’ to think their way out of the Monty Hall problem (not even when facing repeating monty hall problem, when, if they reason that switching does not matter, they could switch half of the time and get a feeling over the time that switching gives more wins—that’s how pigeons and little children solve monty hall correctly).
It is not type 1 reasoning vs type 2 reasoning here. It is type 1 reasoning versus no reasoning at all. People, overwhelmingly, can’t reason explicitly about vast majority of problems they encounter; their explicit reasoning is only usable for producing sequences of symbols for presentation. (i.e. speech)