0.2 OOMs/year is equivalent to a doubling time of 8 months.
I think this is wrong, that’s nearly 8 doublings in 5 years, should instead be doubling every 5 years, should instead be doubling every 5 / log2(10) = 1.5.. years
I think pushing GPT-4 out to 2029 would be a good level of slowdown from 2022, but assuming that we could achieve that level of impact, what’s the case for having a fixed exponential increase? Is it to let of some level of ‘steam’ in the AI industry? So that we can still get AGI in our lifetimes? To make it seem more reasonable to policymakers?
I would still rather have a moratorium until some measure of progress of understanding personally. We don’t have a fixed temperature increase per decade built into our climate targets.
I think this is wrong, that’s nearly 8 doublings in 5 years, should instead be doubling every 5 years, should instead be doubling every 5 / log2(10) = 1.5.. years
I think pushing GPT-4 out to 2029 would be a good level of slowdown from 2022, but assuming that we could achieve that level of impact, what’s the case for having a fixed exponential increase? Is it to let of some level of ‘steam’ in the AI industry? So that we can still get AGI in our lifetimes? To make it seem more reasonable to policymakers?
I would still rather have a moratorium until some measure of progress of understanding personally. We don’t have a fixed temperature increase per decade built into our climate targets.
The 0.2 OOMs/year target would be an effective moratorium until 2029, because GPT-4 overshot the target.
Yep, thanks! 0.2 OOMs/year is equivalent to a doubling time of 18 months. I think that was just a typo.