design cycles have stayed about the same length while chips have gotten hundreds of times more complex, and also much faster, both of which soak up computing power.
So...if you use chip x to simulate its successor chip y, and chip y to simulate its successor, chip z, the complexity and speed progressions both scale at exactly the right ratio to keep simulation times roughly constant? Interesting stuff.
Sounds as though the introduction of black-box 2015 chips would lead to a small bump and level off quite quickly, short of a few huge insights, which Jed seems to suggest are quite rare. Eliezer, is this another veiled suggestion that hardware is not what we need to be working on if we’re looking to FOOM?
Changes to software that involve revising pervasive assumptions have always been difficult, of course.
design cycles have stayed about the same length while chips have gotten hundreds of times more complex, and also much faster, both of which soak up computing power.
So...if you use chip x to simulate its successor chip y, and chip y to simulate its successor, chip z, the complexity and speed progressions both scale at exactly the right ratio to keep simulation times roughly constant? Interesting stuff.
Sounds as though the introduction of black-box 2015 chips would lead to a small bump and level off quite quickly, short of a few huge insights, which Jed seems to suggest are quite rare. Eliezer, is this another veiled suggestion that hardware is not what we need to be working on if we’re looking to FOOM?
Changes to software that involve revising pervasive assumptions have always been difficult, of course.
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