So maybe I should just ask whether you are conditioning on the capabilities progression or not with this disagreement? Do you think $140b in 2027 is implausible even if you condition on the AI 2027 capability progression?
I am conditioning on the capabilities progression.
Based on your later comments, I think you are expecting a much faster/stronger/more direct translation of capabilities into revenue than I am- such that conditioning on faster progress makes more of a difference.
The exact breakdown FutureSearch use seems relatively unimportant compared to the high level argument that the headline (1) $/month and (2) no. of subscribers, very plausibly reaches the $100B ARR range, given the expected quality of agents that they will be able to offer.
Sure, I disagree with that too. I recognize that most of the growth comes from the Agents category rather than the Consumer category, but overstating growth in the only period we can evaluate is evidence that the model or intuition will also overstate growth of other types in other periods.
I don’t think a monopoly is necessary, there’s a significant OpenBrain lead-time in the scenario, and I think it seems plausible that OpenBrain would convert that into a significant market share.
OpenBrain doesn’t actually have a significant lead time by the standards of the “normal” economy. The assumed lead time is “3-9 months”; both from my very limited personal experience (involved very tangentially in 2 such sales attempts) and from checking online, enterprise sales in the 6+ digits range often take longer than that to close anyways.
I’m suspicious that both you and FutureSearch are trying to apply intuitions from free-to-use consumer-focused software companies to massive enterprise SAAS sales. (FutureSearch compares OpenAI with Google, Facebook, and TikTok.) Beyond the length of sales cycles, another difference is that enterprise software is infamously low quality; there are various purported causes, but relevant ones include various principal-agent problems: the people making decisions have trouble evaluating software, won’t necessarily be directly using it themselves, and care more about things aside from technical quality: “Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM”.
Thanks for the response!
I am conditioning on the capabilities progression.
Based on your later comments, I think you are expecting a much faster/stronger/more direct translation of capabilities into revenue than I am- such that conditioning on faster progress makes more of a difference.
Sure, I disagree with that too. I recognize that most of the growth comes from the Agents category rather than the Consumer category, but overstating growth in the only period we can evaluate is evidence that the model or intuition will also overstate growth of other types in other periods.
OpenBrain doesn’t actually have a significant lead time by the standards of the “normal” economy. The assumed lead time is “3-9 months”; both from my very limited personal experience (involved very tangentially in 2 such sales attempts) and from checking online, enterprise sales in the 6+ digits range often take longer than that to close anyways.
I’m suspicious that both you and FutureSearch are trying to apply intuitions from free-to-use consumer-focused software companies to massive enterprise SAAS sales. (FutureSearch compares OpenAI with Google, Facebook, and TikTok.) Beyond the length of sales cycles, another difference is that enterprise software is infamously low quality; there are various purported causes, but relevant ones include various principal-agent problems: the people making decisions have trouble evaluating software, won’t necessarily be directly using it themselves, and care more about things aside from technical quality: “Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM”.