steven: your “not 100% sure” is a perfect example of the problem eliezer is trying to explain. “not 100% sure that X is false” is not a valid excuse to waste thought on X if the prior improbability of X is as incredibly tiny as it is for thoughts like “paperclip maximizers will find their own paperclip-related reasons not to murder everyone”.
steven: your “not 100% sure” is a perfect example of the problem eliezer is trying to explain. “not 100% sure that X is false” is not a valid excuse to waste thought on X if the prior improbability of X is as incredibly tiny as it is for thoughts like “paperclip maximizers will find their own paperclip-related reasons not to murder everyone”.