If you know enough science and can overcome a few cognitive biases when you’re told about them in vivid ways,
Interesting anecdote along these lines: just this morning I used the 1960 Watson experiment as an attempt to explain the Confirmation Bias to a coworker. (That’s the ‘list triplets of numbers. I’ll tell you if they fit or don’t fit the rule I’m thinking of. Your first free example is 2 4 6, which fits.‘) Even after having the Confirmation bias explained to him as the fact that people don’t tend to try to look for ways their beliefs might be wrong (amongst other things), he still only made ‘positive’ guesses, and came up with “Each number is even and a multiple of the first.”
Hypothesis: Your coworker is an idiot. Observation: This hypothesis has little to do with whether or not he is religious.
More seriously, I’ve given the selection task to people before and no one I’ve ever encountered does that badly if they’ve been primed about confirmation bias and similar issues. Even just telling people that it is a puzzle seems to go a long way to them getting the right solution.
I’ve never been greatly impressed by his intellect, but I would definitely say that he is of at least average intelligence. The field I work in doesn’t suffer individuals of significantly poor intelligence (IT/sysadmin), though I freely admit that isn’t really saying much. There are some folks to whom the practice of thinking rationally is just… alien. Once you reach somewhere around forty, thinking patterns get pretty firmly set, too.
Additionally, the guy is an english-as-second-language speaker, so it might not have been a ‘fair trial’ to him. I’m trying to be generous (to him) considering I pretty much agree with you.
This hypothesis has little to do with whether or not he is religious.
Interesting anecdote along these lines: just this morning I used the 1960 Watson experiment as an attempt to explain the Confirmation Bias to a coworker. (That’s the ‘list triplets of numbers. I’ll tell you if they fit or don’t fit the rule I’m thinking of. Your first free example is 2 4 6, which fits.‘) Even after having the Confirmation bias explained to him as the fact that people don’t tend to try to look for ways their beliefs might be wrong (amongst other things), he still only made ‘positive’ guesses, and came up with “Each number is even and a multiple of the first.”
I was fascinated by this.
What was his reaction when he learned that he was wrong?
Hypothesis: Your coworker is an idiot. Observation: This hypothesis has little to do with whether or not he is religious.
More seriously, I’ve given the selection task to people before and no one I’ve ever encountered does that badly if they’ve been primed about confirmation bias and similar issues. Even just telling people that it is a puzzle seems to go a long way to them getting the right solution.
I’ve never been greatly impressed by his intellect, but I would definitely say that he is of at least average intelligence. The field I work in doesn’t suffer individuals of significantly poor intelligence (IT/sysadmin), though I freely admit that isn’t really saying much. There are some folks to whom the practice of thinking rationally is just… alien. Once you reach somewhere around forty, thinking patterns get pretty firmly set, too.
Additionally, the guy is an english-as-second-language speaker, so it might not have been a ‘fair trial’ to him. I’m trying to be generous (to him) considering I pretty much agree with you.
He’s openly atheistic, in fact.