Hmm. Astra tells me that, given a pretty broad prior and the reported estimate, a basic Bayesian calculation gives about a 95% probability that the number went up, and a 30% probability that it went up by more than 5 percentage points (a ~40% increase over the baseline). That seems pretty substantial though yeah perhaps not an “explosion”.
Hmm. Astra tells me that, given a pretty broad prior and the reported estimate, a basic Bayesian calculation gives about a 95% probability that the number went up, and a 30% probability that it went up by more than 5 percentage points (a ~40% increase over the baseline). That seems pretty substantial though yeah perhaps not an “explosion”.