“since there’s a 50% chance that they are outside of the simulation and will benefit by $1000”
This seems wrong. For example, if I see the big box full and choose to also take the small box too, then it is IMPOSSIBLE for me to be in the real world. In that case I may well take only one box, because my world is fake and I will die soon.
So suppose I commit to one-boxing if big box is full, which is always in my interest (as mentioned). Now, if I see the big box empty and choose NOT to take the small box, it is impossible for me to be in the real world. So I may as well not take the small box if I’m physically capable of that (if I am, it means this world is fake and I will die soon).
So it seems clear that I always one box, even if I only care about the real world and not about hypothetical worlds.
“since there’s a 50% chance that they are outside of the simulation and will benefit by $1000”
This seems wrong. For example, if I see the big box full and choose to also take the small box too, then it is IMPOSSIBLE for me to be in the real world. In that case I may well take only one box, because my world is fake and I will die soon.
So suppose I commit to one-boxing if big box is full, which is always in my interest (as mentioned). Now, if I see the big box empty and choose NOT to take the small box, it is impossible for me to be in the real world. So I may as well not take the small box if I’m physically capable of that (if I am, it means this world is fake and I will die soon).
So it seems clear that I always one box, even if I only care about the real world and not about hypothetical worlds.