What I’m doing wrong? I think that one obviously should be happy with 1<(insert ridiculous amount of zeros)> years for 1 − 1:10^1000 chance of dying within an hour. In a simplistic way of thinking. I could take into account things like “What’s going to happen to the rest of all sentient beings”, “what’s up with humanity after that”, and even more importantly, If this offer were to be available for every sentient being, I should assign huge negative utility for chance of all life being terminated due to ridiculously low chance of anyone winning those extra years.
Also I could assume to justify pure time discounting due to the fact that there is no premise that defines how long I’m going to live otherwise, after declining the offer. If Omega can make that offer, why couldn’t post-humans make a better one after 1000 years of research? And if they can, shouldn’t I be trying to maximize my chance of living merely 1000 years longer? If there was a premise that set my lifespan on case of declining the offer(“You shall live only 100 years”), I’d be in favor of ridiculously low chance of ridiculously many years, if considerations from my earlier points justify that(My strategy for choosing wouldn’t endanger all sentient life within the universe etc). I think the counter-intuitiveness rises from the fact that especially now it’s fairly difficult to make good estimations of “natural” lifespan expectations in absence of deals from Omega.
What I’m doing wrong? I think that one obviously should be happy with 1<(insert ridiculous amount of zeros)> years for 1 − 1:10^1000 chance of dying within an hour. In a simplistic way of thinking. I could take into account things like “What’s going to happen to the rest of all sentient beings”, “what’s up with humanity after that”, and even more importantly, If this offer were to be available for every sentient being, I should assign huge negative utility for chance of all life being terminated due to ridiculously low chance of anyone winning those extra years.
Also I could assume to justify pure time discounting due to the fact that there is no premise that defines how long I’m going to live otherwise, after declining the offer. If Omega can make that offer, why couldn’t post-humans make a better one after 1000 years of research? And if they can, shouldn’t I be trying to maximize my chance of living merely 1000 years longer? If there was a premise that set my lifespan on case of declining the offer(“You shall live only 100 years”), I’d be in favor of ridiculously low chance of ridiculously many years, if considerations from my earlier points justify that(My strategy for choosing wouldn’t endanger all sentient life within the universe etc). I think the counter-intuitiveness rises from the fact that especially now it’s fairly difficult to make good estimations of “natural” lifespan expectations in absence of deals from Omega.