The main advantage for epistemics of working as a moderate is that almost all of your work has an informed, intelligent, thoughtful audience. I spend lots of time talking to and aiming to persuade AI company staff who are generally very intelligent, knowledgeable about AI, and intimately familiar with the goings-on at AI companies. In contrast, as a radical, almost all of your audience—policymakers, elites, the general public—is poorly informed, only able or willing to engage shallowly, and needs to have their attention grabbed intentionally. The former situation is obviously way more conducive to maintaining good epistemics.
This sounds like the streetlight bias, superficially? Just because your audience is intelligent and knowledgeable, doesn’t mean it’s the right audience, and doesn’t mean the stance that led you to them is correct.
This sounds like the streetlight bias, superficially? Just because your audience is intelligent and knowledgeable, doesn’t mean it’s the right audience, and doesn’t mean the stance that led you to them is correct.