If someone predicts in advance that something is obviously false, and then you come to believe that it’s false, then you should update not just towards thought processes which would have predicted that the thing is false, but also towards thought processes which would have predicted that the thing is obviously false. (Conversely, if they predict that it’s obviously false, and it turns out to be true, you should update more strongly against their thought processes than if they’d just predicted it was false.)
IIRC Eliezer’s objection to bioanchors can be reasonably interpreted as an advance prediction that “it’s obviously false”, though to be confident I’d need to reread his original post (which I can’t be bothered to do right now).
If someone predicts in advance that something is obviously false, and then you come to believe that it’s false, then you should update not just towards thought processes which would have predicted that the thing is false, but also towards thought processes which would have predicted that the thing is obviously false. (Conversely, if they predict that it’s obviously false, and it turns out to be true, you should update more strongly against their thought processes than if they’d just predicted it was false.)
IIRC Eliezer’s objection to bioanchors can be reasonably interpreted as an advance prediction that “it’s obviously false”, though to be confident I’d need to reread his original post (which I can’t be bothered to do right now).