But I (and almost everyone else who didn’t call it as obvious in advance), should pay attention to the correct prediction, and ignore the assertion that it was obvious.
I think this is wrong. The scenarios where this outcome was easily predicted given the right heuristics and the scenarios where this was surprising to every side of the debate are quite different. Knowing who had predictors that worked in this scenario is useful evidence, especially when the debate was about which frames for thinking about things and selecting heuristics were useful.
Or, to put this in simpler but somewhat imprecise terms: This was not obvious to you because you were thinking about things the wrong way. You didn’t know which way to think about things at the time because you lacked information about which predicted things better. You now have evidence about which ways work better, and can copy heuristics from people who were less surprised.
I think this is wrong. The scenarios where this outcome was easily predicted given the right heuristics and the scenarios where this was surprising to every side of the debate are quite different. Knowing who had predictors that worked in this scenario is useful evidence, especially when the debate was about which frames for thinking about things and selecting heuristics were useful.
Or, to put this in simpler but somewhat imprecise terms: This was not obvious to you because you were thinking about things the wrong way. You didn’t know which way to think about things at the time because you lacked information about which predicted things better. You now have evidence about which ways work better, and can copy heuristics from people who were less surprised.