Zack Friedman comments on Does there exist an interactive reasoning map tool that lets users visually lay out claims, assign probabilities and confidence levels, and dynamically adjust their beliefs based on weighted influences between connected assertions?

[Zack Friedman]

Adele, that’s awesome. I’ll definitely use it next time I need Bayes-level precision.

I’ve been working on this quite a bit. It’s only Bayes-lite though: it blends beliefs using weighted averages in log-odds space and outputs the robustness and probability of the recalculated beliefs. That should be fine for my purposes and for layman use.

I’ve got the rawest of functional prototypes. But the hard part is done—the math checks out. It even propagates complex loops without breaking. It will take me a while to develop the UI though. Here’s a screen grab. Not too pretty yet. I’ll let you know when I really have something worth sharing.