What I said had nothing to do with the specific number 12, except that that’s what the original post used. My point was that you can’t make a list of a lot of evils (regardless of the exact number) and assign percentages and multiply them together. When asked to assign percentages for unlikely events, people assign them in a logically inconsistent way. The entire argument consists of abusing this inconsistency in order to make the chance of evil look high.
What I said had nothing to do with the specific number 12, except that that’s what the original post used. My point was that you can’t make a list of a lot of evils (regardless of the exact number) and assign percentages and multiply them together. When asked to assign percentages for unlikely events, people assign them in a logically inconsistent way. The entire argument consists of abusing this inconsistency in order to make the chance of evil look high.