For some reason no one wants to hold Eric Drexler accountable now for the grandiose, irresponsible and frankly cringe-worthy things he wrote back in the 1980′s.
Case in point. I turned 27 in 1986, the year Drexler published Engines of Creation, so I belong to the generation referred to in the following speculation:
Imagine someone who is now thirty years old [in 1986]. In another thirty years, biotechnology will have advanced greatly, yet that thirty-year-old will be only sixty. Statistical tables which assume no advances in medicine say that a thirty-year-old U.S. citizen can now expect to live almost fifty more years—that is, well into the 2030s. Fairly routine advances (of sorts demonstrated in animals) seem likely to add years, perhaps decades, to life by 2030. The mere beginnings of cell repair technology might extend life by several decades. In short, the medicine of 2010, 2020, and 2030 seems likely to extend our thirty-year-old’s life into the 2040s and 2050s. By then, if not before, medical advances may permit actual rejuvenation. Thus, those under thirty (and perhaps those substantially older) can look forward—at least tentatively—to medicine’s overtaking their aging process and delivering them safely to an era of cell repair, vigor, and indefinite life-span.
I turn 54 this November, and I can assure you that no one in my generation has seen “medicine’s overtaking their aging process.”
Yet many cryonicists have bet their futures on this fantasy technology, when regular people can see that it has taken on the characteristics of an apocalyptic religious belief instead of a rational assessment of future capabilities. Cryonicist Thomas Donaldson warned that this would happen and not help cryonics’ credibility, back around the time Drexler predicted that I would start to grow younger by now.
Apparently Drexler wants to reboot his reputation with a new book, but someone needs to remind people about the things he promised us in his 1980′s-era writings which haven’t come to pass.
For some reason no one wants to hold Eric Drexler accountable now for the grandiose, irresponsible and frankly cringe-worthy things he wrote back in the 1980′s.
Case in point. I turned 27 in 1986, the year Drexler published Engines of Creation, so I belong to the generation referred to in the following speculation:
http://e-drexler.com/d/06/00/EOC/EOC_Chapter_8.html
I turn 54 this November, and I can assure you that no one in my generation has seen “medicine’s overtaking their aging process.”
Yet many cryonicists have bet their futures on this fantasy technology, when regular people can see that it has taken on the characteristics of an apocalyptic religious belief instead of a rational assessment of future capabilities. Cryonicist Thomas Donaldson warned that this would happen and not help cryonics’ credibility, back around the time Drexler predicted that I would start to grow younger by now.
Apparently Drexler wants to reboot his reputation with a new book, but someone needs to remind people about the things he promised us in his 1980′s-era writings which haven’t come to pass.