Well, one problem with simply regressing IQ against income is that to an extent the gain is coming from what look like positional or zero-sum effects like displacing someone at an elite university
The numbers are higher if you don’t control for education. Remember that on all the major theories of returns to education educated workers are more productive: learning (IQ helps to learn), ability bias (which is just saying that controlling for education understates direct IQ effects), and signaling. On signaling accounts the signals have to be honest enough that employers don’t find it profitable to ignore the educational credentials.
Externalities are interesting, but hard to estimate (except for obvious individual-level things like net fiscal contribution, crime, etc), and probably not a primary focus for parents.
if sample sizes are growing exponentially
Yes. There are large samples scheduled to be online within 2 years that could give a 10x in sample size.
I’m not going to continue this thread any longer though, as many of the pieces should be addressed in a forthcoming paper with Nick Bostrom.
Thanks gwern and Carl. From what you’ve said here, my confidence that this is (at least in principle) possible now has risen. I do wish somebody with credentials would go on the record about it—I guess that’s what your paper is for.
The numbers are higher if you don’t control for education. Remember that on all the major theories of returns to education educated workers are more productive: learning (IQ helps to learn), ability bias (which is just saying that controlling for education understates direct IQ effects), and signaling. On signaling accounts the signals have to be honest enough that employers don’t find it profitable to ignore the educational credentials.
Externalities are interesting, but hard to estimate (except for obvious individual-level things like net fiscal contribution, crime, etc), and probably not a primary focus for parents.
Yes. There are large samples scheduled to be online within 2 years that could give a 10x in sample size.
I’m not going to continue this thread any longer though, as many of the pieces should be addressed in a forthcoming paper with Nick Bostrom.
Alright, I’ll wait for that to come out then.
Thanks gwern and Carl. From what you’ve said here, my confidence that this is (at least in principle) possible now has risen. I do wish somebody with credentials would go on the record about it—I guess that’s what your paper is for.