They do matter, since it implies a sort of selection effect where people will share the evidence for doom, and not notice the evidence for not-doom, and this matters because the real chance of doom may be much lower, in principle arbitrarily low, while LWers and AI safety/governance organizations have higher probabilities of doom.
Combined with more standard biases on negative news being selected for, it is one piece in why I think AI doom is very unlikely. This is just one piece of it, not my entire argument
And I think this already happened, cf the entire inner misalignment/optimization daemon situation, where it was tested twice, once showing a confirmed break, and the other one by Ulisse Mini, where in a more realistic situation, the optimization daemon/inner misalignment went away, and very little shared on this result, compared to the original which almost certainly got more views.
They do matter, since it implies a sort of selection effect where people will share the evidence for doom, and not notice the evidence for not-doom, and this matters because the real chance of doom may be much lower, in principle arbitrarily low, while LWers and AI safety/governance organizations have higher probabilities of doom.
Combined with more standard biases on negative news being selected for, it is one piece in why I think AI doom is very unlikely. This is just one piece of it, not my entire argument
And I think this already happened, cf the entire inner misalignment/optimization daemon situation, where it was tested twice, once showing a confirmed break, and the other one by Ulisse Mini, where in a more realistic situation, the optimization daemon/inner misalignment went away, and very little shared on this result, compared to the original which almost certainly got more views.