Probably the best examples involve instances of judging the wisdom of a decision made under extreme uncertainty based on how it came out. So the decision to try to steal a base was praiseworthy if the runner was safe but foolish if the runner got thrown out, and things like that. More broadly, the phenomenon is very strong opinions based on limited or misinterpreted evidence. For example, there are a couple of pitchers on the Yankees right now where there is a big debate about whether they are better suited to be starting pitchers or to be relievers. People have incredibly strong opinions about this on the basis of next to no information, and they regard those opinions as being altogether vindicated in each individual instance where the pitcher does well in their preferred role.
This is common not just in sports, but in other fields as well. If the Allies had been thrown back into the sea on D-Day, it would have gone down as a historic blunder; many, perhaps even most, judge decisions not by their expected chance of succeeding but by their results.
There is also common over-valuing or undervaluing of players according to bad criteria. The only sport I follow closely is basketball where examples of this flourish. The best case is Allen Iverson (who I love, he went to my college) but has been consistently overvalued because he is flashing and athletic and scores a lot of points. The problem is that the reason he scores a lot of points is that he uses a lot of possessions. He scores those points with average efficiency. Moreover, while he (at least in his younger days) grabbed a lot of steals by gambling and jumping after the ball when he wasn’t sure he could get the steal he has always been something of a defensive liability because he is too small to guard most other players who play his position (its worse now that he is older and can’t get the steals). Meanwhile he has been named an all-star 10 times (fan vote).
Actually, most box scores tell you surprisingly little about how good a player is (the relevant statistics are usually not recorded).
*Of course NBA general managers tend to be pretty irrational too, giving big contracts to players who don’t deserve them.
Upvoted, but I’d enjoy an example or two. (I don’t follow or know much about any sports.)
Probably the best examples involve instances of judging the wisdom of a decision made under extreme uncertainty based on how it came out. So the decision to try to steal a base was praiseworthy if the runner was safe but foolish if the runner got thrown out, and things like that. More broadly, the phenomenon is very strong opinions based on limited or misinterpreted evidence. For example, there are a couple of pitchers on the Yankees right now where there is a big debate about whether they are better suited to be starting pitchers or to be relievers. People have incredibly strong opinions about this on the basis of next to no information, and they regard those opinions as being altogether vindicated in each individual instance where the pitcher does well in their preferred role.
This is common not just in sports, but in other fields as well. If the Allies had been thrown back into the sea on D-Day, it would have gone down as a historic blunder; many, perhaps even most, judge decisions not by their expected chance of succeeding but by their results.
I enjoyed your article, but after reading this comment I enjoyed it even more. Thanks for the examples.
There is also common over-valuing or undervaluing of players according to bad criteria. The only sport I follow closely is basketball where examples of this flourish. The best case is Allen Iverson (who I love, he went to my college) but has been consistently overvalued because he is flashing and athletic and scores a lot of points. The problem is that the reason he scores a lot of points is that he uses a lot of possessions. He scores those points with average efficiency. Moreover, while he (at least in his younger days) grabbed a lot of steals by gambling and jumping after the ball when he wasn’t sure he could get the steal he has always been something of a defensive liability because he is too small to guard most other players who play his position (its worse now that he is older and can’t get the steals). Meanwhile he has been named an all-star 10 times (fan vote).
Actually, most box scores tell you surprisingly little about how good a player is (the relevant statistics are usually not recorded).
*Of course NBA general managers tend to be pretty irrational too, giving big contracts to players who don’t deserve them.