It seems like a catastrophic civilizational failure that we don’t have confident common knowledge of how colds spread.
Given the context above (posted by bhauth), the problem seems intrinsically hard. What would make this a civilizational failure? To my eye, that label would be warranted if either:
in alternative timelines with the same physics and biological complexity, other civilizations sometimes
figured out transmission. If the success rate is under some threshold (maybe 1%), it suggests variation in civilization isn’t enough to handle the intrinsic complexity. (This option could be summarized as “grading on a multiverse curve”.)
deaths from the common cold (cc) met the criteria of “catastrophic”. The cc costs lives, happiness, and productivity, yes, but relative to other diseases, the “catastrophic” label seems off-target. (This option
is analogous to comparing against other risks.)
Given the context above (posted by bhauth), the problem seems intrinsically hard. What would make this a civilizational failure? To my eye, that label would be warranted if either:
in alternative timelines with the same physics and biological complexity, other civilizations sometimes figured out transmission. If the success rate is under some threshold (maybe 1%), it suggests variation in civilization isn’t enough to handle the intrinsic complexity. (This option could be summarized as “grading on a multiverse curve”.)
deaths from the common cold (cc) met the criteria of “catastrophic”. The cc costs lives, happiness, and productivity, yes, but relative to other diseases, the “catastrophic” label seems off-target. (This option is analogous to comparing against other risks.)