Here is an example of a systems dynamics diagram showing some of the key feedback loops I see. We could discuss various narratives around it and what to change (add, subtract, modify).
┌───── to the degree it is perceived as unsafe ◀──────────┐
│ ┌──── economic factors ◀─────────┐ │
│ + ▼ │ │
│ ┌───────┐ ┌───────────┐ │ │ ┌────────┐
│ │people │ │ effort to │ ┌───────┐ ┌─────────┐ │ AI │
▼ - │working│ + │make AI as │ + │ AI │ + │potential│ + │becomes │
├─────▶│ in │────▶│powerful as│─────▶│ power │───▶│ for │───▶│ too │
│ │general│ │ possible │ └───────┘ │unsafe AI│ │powerful│
│ │ AI │ └───────────┘ │ └─────────┘ └────────┘
│ └───────┘ │
│ │ net movement │ e.g. use AI to reason
│ + ▼ │ about AI safety
│ ┌────────┐ + ▼
│ │ people │ ┌────────┐ ┌─────────────┐ ┌──────────┐
│ + │working │ + │ effort │ + │understanding│ + │alignment │
└────▶│ in AI │────▶│for safe│─────▶│of AI safety │─────────────▶│ solved │
│ safety │ │ AI │ └─────────────┘ └──────────┘
└────────┘ └────────┘ │
+ ▲ │
└─── success begets interest ◀───┘
I find this style of thinking particularly constructive.
For any two nodes, you can see a visual relationship (or lack thereof) and ask “what influence do these have on each other and why?”.
The act of summarization cuts out chaff.
It is harder to fool yourself about the completeness of your analysis.
It is easier to get to core areas of confusion or disagreement with others.
Personally, I find verbal reasoning workable for “local” (pairwise) reasoning but quite constraining for systemic thinking.
If nothing else, I hope this example shows how easily key feedback loops get overlooked. How many of us claim to have… (a) some technical expertise in positive and negative feedback? (b) interest in Bayes nets? So why don’t we take the time to write out our diagrams? How can we do better?
P.S. There are major oversights in the diagram above, such as economic factors. This is not a limitation of the technique itself—it is a limitation of the space and effort I’ve put into it. I have many other such diagrams in the works.
Here is an example of a systems dynamics diagram showing some of the key feedback loops I see. We could discuss various narratives around it and what to change (add, subtract, modify).
I find this style of thinking particularly constructive.
For any two nodes, you can see a visual relationship (or lack thereof) and ask “what influence do these have on each other and why?”.
The act of summarization cuts out chaff.
It is harder to fool yourself about the completeness of your analysis.
It is easier to get to core areas of confusion or disagreement with others.
Personally, I find verbal reasoning workable for “local” (pairwise) reasoning but quite constraining for systemic thinking.
If nothing else, I hope this example shows how easily key feedback loops get overlooked. How many of us claim to have… (a) some technical expertise in positive and negative feedback? (b) interest in Bayes nets? So why don’t we take the time to write out our diagrams? How can we do better?
P.S. There are major oversights in the diagram above, such as economic factors. This is not a limitation of the technique itself—it is a limitation of the space and effort I’ve put into it. I have many other such diagrams in the works.