I think the case where the well has an approximately known size, extraction can be paused at low cost, there is no contract or law obligating “use it or lose it” for mineral rights, the extractor can deal with the lack of cashflow, you’re right.
But there are certainly conditions where production can’t be varied even if an increase in prices is clearly expected.
I understand that you can’t simply stop extracting, but as long as you’re allowed to own oil and not drill it you should be fine. If you’re having cash flow problems, you can sell the land.
Are there enough “use it or lose it” mineral rights problems to mess with the market?
I think the case where the well has an approximately known size, extraction can be paused at low cost, there is no contract or law obligating “use it or lose it” for mineral rights, the extractor can deal with the lack of cashflow, you’re right.
But there are certainly conditions where production can’t be varied even if an increase in prices is clearly expected.
I understand that you can’t simply stop extracting, but as long as you’re allowed to own oil and not drill it you should be fine. If you’re having cash flow problems, you can sell the land.
Are there enough “use it or lose it” mineral rights problems to mess with the market?
A lot of the world’s oil rights are held by unstable and/or autocratic regimes, who might well prefer to have the wealth in more liquid form.