Dennett and Hofstadter have “extremely large” estimates of the time to intelligent machines as well. I expect such estimates will prove to be wrong—but it is true that we don’t know much about the size of the target in the search space—or how rough that space is—so almost any estimate is defensible.
Dennett and Hofstadter have “extremely large” estimates of the time to intelligent machines as well. I expect such estimates will prove to be wrong—but it is true that we don’t know much about the size of the target in the search space—or how rough that space is—so almost any estimate is defensible.