So if the deal breaks down in 2033, the intelligence explosion happens 25x faster; in 2040 it happens ~600x faster. If the intelligence explosion would have lasted a year, it will now last just a couple of weeks or as little as a single day!
Surely not—compute is not the only input to progress, and some things need serial time. If you have a task where you have a 1 week gap between making an attempt and seeing how it went, then at week 0 you have only the data from before your first attempt, and no you’re not getting the results for that first round of trials until after that week is up no matter how much compute you throw at it. Maybe you can route around most things which have a feedback loop, but compressing a year of progress into a day means you’ve found a way to route around basically all of the bottlenecks, immediately, with no time for your model of how to bypass that bottleneck to make contact with reality first.
Surely not—compute is not the only input to progress, and some things need serial time. If you have a task where you have a 1 week gap between making an attempt and seeing how it went, then at week 0 you have only the data from before your first attempt, and no you’re not getting the results for that first round of trials until after that week is up no matter how much compute you throw at it. Maybe you can route around most things which have a feedback loop, but compressing a year of progress into a day means you’ve found a way to route around basically all of the bottlenecks, immediately, with no time for your model of how to bypass that bottleneck to make contact with reality first.