The Drake equation gives an estimate for the number of technological civil actions to ever arise, by multiplying a number of parameters. Many of these parameters are unknown, and reasonable estimates range over many orders of magnitude. This paper takes defensible ranges for these parameters from the literature, and shows that if they are all small, but reasonable, we are the only technological civilization in the universe.
Earth was not eaten by aliens or an AGI in the past, nor do we see them in the sky, so we are probably alone. (Or else interstellar expansion is impossible, for some reason. But that seems unlikely.)
https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 “Dissolving the Fermi paradox”.
The Drake equation gives an estimate for the number of technological civil actions to ever arise, by multiplying a number of parameters. Many of these parameters are unknown, and reasonable estimates range over many orders of magnitude. This paper takes defensible ranges for these parameters from the literature, and shows that if they are all small, but reasonable, we are the only technological civilization in the universe.
Earth was not eaten by aliens or an AGI in the past, nor do we see them in the sky, so we are probably alone. (Or else interstellar expansion is impossible, for some reason. But that seems unlikely.)