my current estimate is that if the government were doing adversarial reasoning, they would have allocated the money much differently; they probably heavily over-reacted to the very specific attack that was observed
even under adversarial reasoning, a strategy isn’t much good if it costs more than what it prevents
It’s practically impossible to objectively assess the cost-effectiveness of the TSA, since we have no idea what the alternate universe with no TSA looks like. But we can subjectively assess.
Agreed. Something something infrabayes.
But,
my current estimate is that if the government were doing adversarial reasoning, they would have allocated the money much differently; they probably heavily over-reacted to the very specific attack that was observed
even under adversarial reasoning, a strategy isn’t much good if it costs more than what it prevents
It’s practically impossible to objectively assess the cost-effectiveness of the TSA, since we have no idea what the alternate universe with no TSA looks like. But we can subjectively assess.