I modeled crabmonsters as triangular rather than exponential. Two ways I could have gotten this right: (1) GM-modeling; I was pretty sure all of these were dice rolls but forgot that for crabmonsters, or (2) uncertainty hedging; if there was an obvious next encounter after merpeople to extend further than modeled, it was crabmonsters, not e.g. pirates or water elementals.
Demon whales were spot-on. I said 76.4% fatality rate, actual was 78%.
My notes on merpeople were correct, imprecise, and as follows:
SUPER SUS, there is a little blip right near the highest damage mark. Very high uncertainty here—they may kill lots?
Nessie I gave slightly more mean and slightly less variance than I should have, guessing 60+4d12 (86, 6.90^2) when the truth was 40+10d8 (85, 7.25^2). Still, I said 2.39% chance of fatality and actual fatality was “~2%”.
I did much better on this one than the last. :) Relatedly, the primary difficulty at my “how do I get money” work is that when we tell an e-commerce merchant “this particular order? we’re not going to insure this order against fraud, it’s too risky”, they don’t ship it, and we never find out much info in that part of the distribution.
AAR:
I modeled crabmonsters as triangular rather than exponential. Two ways I could have gotten this right: (1) GM-modeling; I was pretty sure all of these were dice rolls but forgot that for crabmonsters, or (2) uncertainty hedging; if there was an obvious next encounter after merpeople to extend further than modeled, it was crabmonsters, not e.g. pirates or water elementals.
Demon whales were spot-on. I said 76.4% fatality rate, actual was 78%.
My notes on merpeople were correct, imprecise, and as follows:
Nessie I gave slightly more mean and slightly less variance than I should have, guessing 60+4d12 (86, 6.90^2) when the truth was 40+10d8 (85, 7.25^2). Still, I said 2.39% chance of fatality and actual fatality was “~2%”.
I did much better on this one than the last. :) Relatedly, the primary difficulty at my “how do I get money” work is that when we tell an e-commerce merchant “this particular order? we’re not going to insure this order against fraud, it’s too risky”, they don’t ship it, and we never find out much info in that part of the distribution.