Want to know what AI will do to the labor market? Just look at male labor force participation (LFP) research.
US Male LFP has dropped since the 70s, from ~80% to ~67.5%.
There are a few dynamics driving this, and all of them interact with each other. But the primary ones seem to be:
increased disability [1]
younger men (e.g. <35 years old) pursuing education instead of working [2]
decline in manufacturing and increase in services as fraction of the economy
increased female labor force participation [1]
Our economy shifted from labor that required physical toughness (manufacturing) to labor that required more intelligence (services). At the same time, our culture empowered women to attain more education and participate in labor markets. As a result, the market for jobs that require higher intelligence became more competitive, and many men could not keep up and became “inactive.” Many of these men fell into depression or became physically ill, thus unable to work.
Increased AI participation is going to do for humanity what increased women LFP has done for men in the last 50 years—it is going to make cognitive labor an increasingly competitive market. The humans that can keep up will continue to participate and do well for themselves.
What about the humans who can’t keep up? Well, just look at what men are doing now. Some men are pursuing higher education or training, attempting to re-enter the labor market by becoming more competitive or switching industries.
But an increased percentage of men are dropping out completely. Unemployed men are spending more hours playing sports and video games [1], and don’t see the value in participating in the economy for a variety of reasons [3] [4].
Unless culture changes and the nature of jobs evolve dramatically in the next couple of years, I suspect these trends to continue.
Want to know what AI will do to the labor market? Just look at male labor force participation (LFP) research.
US Male LFP has dropped since the 70s, from ~80% to ~67.5%.
There are a few dynamics driving this, and all of them interact with each other. But the primary ones seem to be:
increased disability [1]
younger men (e.g. <35 years old) pursuing education instead of working [2]
decline in manufacturing and increase in services as fraction of the economy
increased female labor force participation [1]
Our economy shifted from labor that required physical toughness (manufacturing) to labor that required more intelligence (services). At the same time, our culture empowered women to attain more education and participate in labor markets. As a result, the market for jobs that require higher intelligence became more competitive, and many men could not keep up and became “inactive.” Many of these men fell into depression or became physically ill, thus unable to work.
Increased AI participation is going to do for humanity what increased women LFP has done for men in the last 50 years—it is going to make cognitive labor an increasingly competitive market. The humans that can keep up will continue to participate and do well for themselves.
What about the humans who can’t keep up? Well, just look at what men are doing now. Some men are pursuing higher education or training, attempting to re-enter the labor market by becoming more competitive or switching industries.
But an increased percentage of men are dropping out completely. Unemployed men are spending more hours playing sports and video games [1], and don’t see the value in participating in the economy for a variety of reasons [3] [4].
Unless culture changes and the nature of jobs evolve dramatically in the next couple of years, I suspect these trends to continue.
Relevant links:
[1] Male Labor Force Participation: Patterns and Trends | Richmond Fed
[2] Men’s Falling Labor Force Participation across Generations—San Francisco Fed
[3] The Effect of Declining Marriage Prospects on Young Men’s Labor-Force Participation Rate by Ariel Binder :: SSRN
[4] What’s behind Declining Male Labor Force Participation | Mercatus Center