Here’s the place in the interview where he says this (at 16:16). So there were no crucial qualifiers for the 3-6 months figure, which in hindsight makes sense, since it’s near enough to likely refer to his impression of an already existing AI available at Anthropic internally[1]. Maybe also corroborated in his mind with some knowledge about capabilities of a reasoning model based on GPT-4.5, which is almost certainly available internally at OpenAI.
Probably a reasoning model based on a larger pretrained model than Sonnet 3.7. He recently announced in another interview that a model larger than Sonnet 3.7 is due to come out in “relatively small number of time units” (at 12:35). So probably the plan is to release in a few weeks, but something could go wrong and then it’ll take longer. Possibly long reasoning won’t be there immediately if there isn’t enough compute to run it, and the 3-6 months figure refers to when he expects enough inference compute for long reasoning to be released.
Here’s the place in the interview where he says this (at 16:16). So there were no crucial qualifiers for the 3-6 months figure, which in hindsight makes sense, since it’s near enough to likely refer to his impression of an already existing AI available at Anthropic internally[1]. Maybe also corroborated in his mind with some knowledge about capabilities of a reasoning model based on GPT-4.5, which is almost certainly available internally at OpenAI.
Probably a reasoning model based on a larger pretrained model than Sonnet 3.7. He recently announced in another interview that a model larger than Sonnet 3.7 is due to come out in “relatively small number of time units” (at 12:35). So probably the plan is to release in a few weeks, but something could go wrong and then it’ll take longer. Possibly long reasoning won’t be there immediately if there isn’t enough compute to run it, and the 3-6 months figure refers to when he expects enough inference compute for long reasoning to be released.