No, that’s a very good reason to start looking for another explanation, but somebody with no understanding of Bayes’ Rule at all would do exactly the same thing. If somebody else would engage in exactly the same behavior with a radically different explanation for that behavior, given a particular stimulus—consider the possibility that your explanation for your behavior is not the real reason for your behavior.
No, that’s a very good reason to start looking for another explanation, but somebody with no understanding of Bayes’ Rule at all would do exactly the same thing. If somebody else would engage in exactly the same behavior with a radically different explanation for that behavior, given a particular stimulus—consider the possibility that your explanation for your behavior is not the real reason for your behavior.