Wow. That asks for a bunch of judgement calls! So here’s what I think, but YMMV:
Q: How powerful is the EU, relative to other major countries?
A: Size wise (various metrics) it’s up there with US and China.
Q: What is its role in international politics?
A: Not much. Foreign policy is decided unamimously meaning that only the lowest common denominator is viable.
Q: What is its long-term trajectory, based on key indicators like economic growth or population growth?
A: Economic growth is middling. Partially because advanced countries grow less, partially, there was an actual slowdown after 2008. Population growth is weak, but not as bad as in East Asia. But of course, there’s a large increase becuase of accession of new countries.
Q: As a resident of the EU, is the existence of the EU a net positive or net negative for me?
A: Positive. There are no longer wars in Europe. It used to be the case there was a war between France and Germany every 40-50 years. (And it’s not like it can’t happen any more, see Yugoslavia, Ukraine.)
Q: Did the existence of the EU help or hurt in crisis situations like the financial crisis of 2008.
A: I am not an economist, but if you look at, say, Greek crisis, the difference seems to be that Greece was not allowed to default which it would have probably done if it was not in Eurozone. Btw, nice blog on EU economics: https://www.siliconcontinent.com/
Q: or the Covid pandemic of 2020?
A: Just a feeling, no data, but observing the shitshow, EU seems to have done somewhat better on average than individual nation states.
Wow. That asks for a bunch of judgement calls! So here’s what I think, but YMMV:
Q: How powerful is the EU, relative to other major countries?
A: Size wise (various metrics) it’s up there with US and China.
Q: What is its role in international politics?
A: Not much. Foreign policy is decided unamimously meaning that only the lowest common denominator is viable.
Q: What is its long-term trajectory, based on key indicators like economic growth or population growth?
A: Economic growth is middling. Partially because advanced countries grow less, partially, there was an actual slowdown after 2008. Population growth is weak, but not as bad as in East Asia. But of course, there’s a large increase becuase of accession of new countries.
Q: As a resident of the EU, is the existence of the EU a net positive or net negative for me?
A: Positive. There are no longer wars in Europe. It used to be the case there was a war between France and Germany every 40-50 years. (And it’s not like it can’t happen any more, see Yugoslavia, Ukraine.)
Q: Did the existence of the EU help or hurt in crisis situations like the financial crisis of 2008.
A: I am not an economist, but if you look at, say, Greek crisis, the difference seems to be that Greece was not allowed to default which it would have probably done if it was not in Eurozone. Btw, nice blog on EU economics: https://www.siliconcontinent.com/
Q: or the Covid pandemic of 2020?
A: Just a feeling, no data, but observing the shitshow, EU seems to have done somewhat better on average than individual nation states.
Greece defaulted in 2012, it was the largest sovereign default in history.