It is written as independent probabilities so it’s just your expectation, given that governments develop AGI, that AGI is a net positive. So it’s additive to the “AGI will lead to a net positive future”. You would expect the averages of the “large companies” and “nation state” arguments to average to the “AGI will lead...” question.
I don’t think you’re answering Vanessa’s question. Before we even get to the government question, the earlier question is “AGI will lead to a net negative future”. What is a “net negative future”? For example, suppose the future is an empty universe without life or consciousness. Is that net negative? It’s not like anyone’s suffering, right? So maybe we should say it’s neutral?
Anyway, I’m interpreting “net positive future” and “net negative future” as: “…compared to a hypothetical future in which AGI is forever impossible to build, for some technical reason”.
It’s unclear what is meant by “net negative” and “net positive” future. Compared to what? Compared to a vacuum? Or, compared to the current world?
It is written as independent probabilities so it’s just your expectation, given that governments develop AGI, that AGI is a net positive. So it’s additive to the “AGI will lead to a net positive future”. You would expect the averages of the “large companies” and “nation state” arguments to average to the “AGI will lead...” question.
I don’t think you’re answering Vanessa’s question. Before we even get to the government question, the earlier question is “AGI will lead to a net negative future”. What is a “net negative future”? For example, suppose the future is an empty universe without life or consciousness. Is that net negative? It’s not like anyone’s suffering, right? So maybe we should say it’s neutral?
Anyway, I’m interpreting “net positive future” and “net negative future” as: “…compared to a hypothetical future in which AGI is forever impossible to build, for some technical reason”.
True, sorry about that! And your interpretation is our interpretation as well however, the survey is updated to a different framing now.