I will bet you $20 U.S. (mine) vs $100 (yours) that Russian tanks will be involved in combat in the Ukraine within 60 days. So in 60 days I will pay you $20 if I lose the bet, but you pay me $100 if I win. Agreed?
I’ll agree to those terms. I’d also take a 1/5th chance of $100 in lieu of $20 (e.g. you pay $100 if no Russian tanks have been involved in combat in the Ukraine by April 28th and the first digit after the decimal of the S&P 500 is a 0 or 5 at close that day).
Agreed with the following two clarifications. (1) By first digit I assume we mean to the left of the decimal point so if the S&P 500 is 1864.33 at close the first digit is a 4 and (2) and by Russian tanks we mean tanks operated by Russian troops not a tank built in Russia.
To lessen transaction costs. Sending money to strangers over the internet is expensive, especially in terms of time. We’re avoiding that cost most of the time I win the bet.
Perhaps I could have negotiated to capture some of the saved value, but (1) I’m nice, (2) I’m less well known than shminux and so come with a greater risk of default, (3) this method saves me time too.
I don’t like variability in my income, but +-$100 is small enough that my utility function is pretty much linear.
I have no interest in betting money on political developments, even though I think I’d likely win in this case. Just enter your prediction in http://predictionbook.com.
I will bet you $20 U.S. (mine) vs $100 (yours) that Russian tanks will be involved in combat in the Ukraine within 60 days. So in 60 days I will pay you $20 if I lose the bet, but you pay me $100 if I win. Agreed?
I’ll agree to those terms. I’d also take a 1/5th chance of $100 in lieu of $20 (e.g. you pay $100 if no Russian tanks have been involved in combat in the Ukraine by April 28th and the first digit after the decimal of the S&P 500 is a 0 or 5 at close that day).
Agreed with the following two clarifications. (1) By first digit I assume we mean to the left of the decimal point so if the S&P 500 is 1864.33 at close the first digit is a 4 and (2) and by Russian tanks we mean tanks operated by Russian troops not a tank built in Russia.
You guys left one possible loophole: Does “tanks will be involved in combat” mean actually firing shells?
I would say “no” but there does have to be fighting because of the word “combat”.
I think it’s a tie since tanks were not involved in combat (although they did invade) but the S&P 500 Index closed at 1,869.43 on April 28th.
Agreed. In retrospect, I think I was a little bit overconfident.
(EDIT: I’m stupid)
To lessen transaction costs. Sending money to strangers over the internet is expensive, especially in terms of time. We’re avoiding that cost most of the time I win the bet.
Perhaps I could have negotiated to capture some of the saved value, but (1) I’m nice, (2) I’m less well known than shminux and so come with a greater risk of default, (3) this method saves me time too.
I don’t like variability in my income, but +-$100 is small enough that my utility function is pretty much linear.
How do you define Ukraine? Does it include the Crimean peninsula?
Yes, everything currently considered part of the country Ukraine.
Looks like a hot war in the Ukraine is starting.
Even worse, Russia might be planning to attack a NATO country.
http://jalopnik.com/this-helicopter-armada-in-ukraine-is-absolutely-terrify-1533287720
edit:
#Pentagon confirms massive (#Russian) sea&air push into #Crimea.Other sources:12 aircraft,up to 2000 airborne troops involved -@2kdei |PR
edit: thanks!
You might want to escape the # by placing a backslash right before it.
I have no interest in betting money on political developments, even though I think I’d likely win in this case. Just enter your prediction in http://predictionbook.com.