And what is the argument for that prior? Why is it not arbitrary and often incorrect?
I tried to present it, but was obviously very unclear. If you read http://lesswrong.com/lw/jk/burdensome_details/ , http://lesswrong.com/lw/jn/how_much_evidence_does_it_take/ , and http://lesswrong.com/lw/jp/occams_razor/ , it’s basically a formalization of those ideas, with a tiny amount of handwaving.
And whatever argument you give, I’ll also be curious: what method of arguing are you using? Deduction? Induction? Something else?
Deduction.
Deduction requires premises to function. Where did you get the premises?
I tried to present it, but was obviously very unclear. If you read http://lesswrong.com/lw/jk/burdensome_details/ , http://lesswrong.com/lw/jn/how_much_evidence_does_it_take/ , and http://lesswrong.com/lw/jp/occams_razor/ , it’s basically a formalization of those ideas, with a tiny amount of handwaving.
Deduction.
Deduction requires premises to function. Where did you get the premises?