The central point I’m making is that people often know that the kid with a backwards baseball cap and sunglasses is likely to be bluffing, even though they don’t know that they know it, and thus it’s an example of an unknown known.
It is true that the cards change every hand, and so the kid may not be bluffing, but the probabilities don’t change (for a given context), so the kid is just as likely to be bluffing each time (for a given context). Eg. on a 964 flop, if the kid is the preflop raiser, he could have AA, but on that flop he’s likely to be bluffing, say, 80% of the time.
The central point I’m making is that people often know that the kid with a backwards baseball cap and sunglasses is likely to be bluffing, even though they don’t know that they know it, and thus it’s an example of an unknown known.
It is true that the cards change every hand, and so the kid may not be bluffing, but the probabilities don’t change (for a given context), so the kid is just as likely to be bluffing each time (for a given context). Eg. on a 964 flop, if the kid is the preflop raiser, he could have AA, but on that flop he’s likely to be bluffing, say, 80% of the time.