The method is “set your prior probability equal to society’s judgement of its probability”. For anything where society as a whole has an opinion at all, it’s a better approximation than any other one-piece-of-evidence method around, and is thus a great way to set your priors.
The method is “set your prior probability equal to society’s judgement of its probability”. For anything where society as a whole has an opinion at all, it’s a better approximation than any other one-piece-of-evidence method around, and is thus a great way to set your priors.
As a general statement, this doesn’t seem to be true. I am also not quite sure what—in real life—is a “one-piece-of-evidence method”.