Is this estimate if AI R&D was reduced today or in the middle of the intelligence explosion (where AI labor plays a bigger role and human labor plays a smaller role)?
For the math, the assumption that might not hold today is that the elasticity of research effort to compute is constant over a large range like 10x.
For the simulations in the AIFM, it changes the results slightly. In the image at the bottom, the top left graph shows the effect of a pause + reduction two years before Automated Coder. Looks like the median drops to about 5x.
Is this estimate if AI R&D was reduced today or in the middle of the intelligence explosion (where AI labor plays a bigger role and human labor plays a smaller role)?
For the math, the assumption that might not hold today is that the elasticity of research effort to compute is constant over a large range like 10x.
For the simulations in the AIFM, it changes the results slightly. In the image at the bottom, the top left graph shows the effect of a pause + reduction two years before Automated Coder. Looks like the median drops to about 5x.