I see—you’re mostly asking about timelines, you’re not asking whether AGI is possible ever, but whether it will happen soon. You should look at the recent post
I did think about writing a similar post to the one I linked asking what are the strongest arguments for longer timelines. I expect those to be at least as weak.
I think the correct summary is that nobody knows. I think the wise move would be to prepare for short timelines since we don’t know.
I see—you’re mostly asking about timelines, you’re not asking whether AGI is possible ever, but whether it will happen soon. You should look at the recent post
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oC4wv4nTrs2yrP5hz/what-are-the-strongest-arguments-for-very-short-timelines
I think timelines is the keyword to search for.
I did think about writing a similar post to the one I linked asking what are the strongest arguments for longer timelines. I expect those to be at least as weak.
I think the correct summary is that nobody knows. I think the wise move would be to prepare for short timelines since we don’t know.