I think the true reference class relevant for the doomsday argument is “humans who think about the doomsday argument”, rather than “humans in general”. Thus, one way in which the doomsday argument might not apply is if future generations stopped thinking about the doomsday argument.
As an illustration, imagine that humanity was replaced by p-zombies/automata without any internal thoughts at all. That seems like it would satisfy the doomsday argument’s prediction. Thus, removing only the internal thoughts related to the doomsday argument should do so as well.
I’d therefore like to suggest the doomsday argument as a possible infohazard, which we should try to avoid discussing when possible.
(To be clear, I don’t blame you at all for bringing it up, and I agree with your main point that conflating between “most” vs “very” likely is harmful and happens often. I just think that mentioning the doomsday argument is a bad idea.)
What if the future generations just stop thinking about it because they made a safe enough world that they stop worrying about such things? That’s not a doomsday.
I think the true reference class relevant for the doomsday argument is “humans who think about the doomsday argument”, rather than “humans in general”. Thus, one way in which the doomsday argument might not apply is if future generations stopped thinking about the doomsday argument.
As an illustration, imagine that humanity was replaced by p-zombies/automata without any internal thoughts at all. That seems like it would satisfy the doomsday argument’s prediction. Thus, removing only the internal thoughts related to the doomsday argument should do so as well.
I’d therefore like to suggest the doomsday argument as a possible infohazard, which we should try to avoid discussing when possible. (To be clear, I don’t blame you at all for bringing it up, and I agree with your main point that conflating between “most” vs “very” likely is harmful and happens often. I just think that mentioning the doomsday argument is a bad idea.)
What if the future generations just stop thinking about it because they made a safe enough world that they stop worrying about such things? That’s not a doomsday.