I agree that the possibility of serious but less than catastrophic effects renders the issue here moot for many problems (which I think includes nuclear war.) I tried to make the interstellar planet example one where the issue is real—the number of such planets seems to me to be unrelated to how many asteroids are in the solar system, and might collide with less-catastrophic effects (or at least we could suppose so), whereas even a glancing collision with a planet-sized object would wipe out humanity. However, I may have failed with the mutated insect example, since one can easily imagine less catastrophic mutations.
I’m unclear on what your position is regarding such catastrophes, though. Something that quickly kills me seems like the most plausible situation where an argument regarding selection effects might be valid. But you seem to have in mind things that kill me more slowly as well, taking long enough for me to have lots of thoughts after realizing that I’m doomed. And you also seem to have in mind things that would have wiped out humanity before I was born, which seems like a different sort of thing altogether to me.
I tried to make the interstellar planet example one where the issue is real—the number of such planets seems to me to be unrelated to how many asteroids are in the solar system
Mh. I see. Well, my position on that isn’t complicated, it’s whatever the argument implies. If it is indeed true that we have no evidence on the probability of this even now, then I think it is possible that it happens quite frequently. (I’m ignorant on this, so I just have to take your word.) In regard to things that kill you “slowly,” I think time just matters proportionately. If an event sets your expected lifespan to one year. then it would have to happen with the frequency of once per year for you to have even odds of finding yourself in that world, which would then be moderate evidence. (I might have made a mistake there, but it seems to me like that’s how it works.) I think we can conclude that nukes probably don’t go off once per month, but not that they go off less than once per lifetime.
I agree that the possibility of serious but less than catastrophic effects renders the issue here moot for many problems (which I think includes nuclear war.) I tried to make the interstellar planet example one where the issue is real—the number of such planets seems to me to be unrelated to how many asteroids are in the solar system, and might collide with less-catastrophic effects (or at least we could suppose so), whereas even a glancing collision with a planet-sized object would wipe out humanity. However, I may have failed with the mutated insect example, since one can easily imagine less catastrophic mutations.
I’m unclear on what your position is regarding such catastrophes, though. Something that quickly kills me seems like the most plausible situation where an argument regarding selection effects might be valid. But you seem to have in mind things that kill me more slowly as well, taking long enough for me to have lots of thoughts after realizing that I’m doomed. And you also seem to have in mind things that would have wiped out humanity before I was born, which seems like a different sort of thing altogether to me.
Mh. I see. Well, my position on that isn’t complicated, it’s whatever the argument implies. If it is indeed true that we have no evidence on the probability of this even now, then I think it is possible that it happens quite frequently. (I’m ignorant on this, so I just have to take your word.) In regard to things that kill you “slowly,” I think time just matters proportionately. If an event sets your expected lifespan to one year. then it would have to happen with the frequency of once per year for you to have even odds of finding yourself in that world, which would then be moderate evidence. (I might have made a mistake there, but it seems to me like that’s how it works.) I think we can conclude that nukes probably don’t go off once per month, but not that they go off less than once per lifetime.