The way I look at it is that before the coin flip you obtain a probability from information you have at the time and you predict ~50%. After the coin flip, you have obtained new information, so the probability that the last coin flip came up tails becomes ~100% (because it did), and the new information also gives you a tiny bit of data that says “maybe the coin comes up heads more often”, so you also update to ~50.005% heads for the next one (or whatever). So, yes, the probability that the coin came up tails last try becomes ~100%, you just couldn’t estimate it from the information you had and with just your brain beforehand (an AGI would’ve probably immediately seen how much force is going into the flip and calculated it all out and seen ~100% probability).
Although if you have an event that’s heavily influenced by quantum magic, which a coin flip is not, you might need to consider that maybe it did have true 50% probability (that is, no amount of information and processing power would improve the prediction), and you just lost half your world’s measure.
The way I look at it is that before the coin flip you obtain a probability from information you have at the time and you predict ~50%. After the coin flip, you have obtained new information, so the probability that the last coin flip came up tails becomes ~100% (because it did), and the new information also gives you a tiny bit of data that says “maybe the coin comes up heads more often”, so you also update to ~50.005% heads for the next one (or whatever). So, yes, the probability that the coin came up tails last try becomes ~100%, you just couldn’t estimate it from the information you had and with just your brain beforehand (an AGI would’ve probably immediately seen how much force is going into the flip and calculated it all out and seen ~100% probability).
Although if you have an event that’s heavily influenced by quantum magic, which a coin flip is not, you might need to consider that maybe it did have true 50% probability (that is, no amount of information and processing power would improve the prediction), and you just lost half your world’s measure.