I think with the rise of AI, we are getting a more clear answer, and it is that programming, like (some parts of) mathematics was only hard for humans due to human specific limitations, and wasn’t all that hard to become good at in a more absolute sense, because programming is probably the 2nd easiest task to verify that you got a correct output in a lot more domains than expected, behind mathematics (at least some parts of mathematics).
And yeah, this post is becoming really, really relevant. By 2029-2030 (or even earlier if the new RL trend of 102 day doubling times keeps going), programmers should assume that they are at high risk of no longer being able to earn even subsistence wages from programming, and plan to move to a new job/save up right now, and should start treating lower pay as something that is likely coming in the near term.
I think with the rise of AI, we are getting a more clear answer, and it is that programming, like (some parts of) mathematics was only hard for humans due to human specific limitations, and wasn’t all that hard to become good at in a more absolute sense, because programming is probably the 2nd easiest task to verify that you got a correct output in a lot more domains than expected, behind mathematics (at least some parts of mathematics).
And yeah, this post is becoming really, really relevant. By 2029-2030 (or even earlier if the new RL trend of 102 day doubling times keeps going), programmers should assume that they are at high risk of no longer being able to earn even subsistence wages from programming, and plan to move to a new job/save up right now, and should start treating lower pay as something that is likely coming in the near term.