You are stating “I think ultra-intelligent machine will believe X”, but this simply means that you believe X, so why the talk about ultra-intelligent machines? It serves no purpose.
(It looks like LW version of the “All reasonable/rational/Scottish people believe X” dark side rhetoric is “Ultra-intelligent machines will believe X”.)
(b) is counterfactual today. Nobody can calculate how many nearby star systems should have given birth to star faring civilizations—since nobody knows p(origin of life). We can’t even make life from plausible inorganic materials yet. We are clueless—and thus highly uncertain.
OK. I think that if an ultra-intelligent AI determines that (a), (b) and (c) are correct then the zoo hypothesis is probably the solution to Fermi’s paradox. I think this last sentence “serves a purpose” because (a), (b) and (c) seem somewhat reasonable and thus after reading my post a reader would give a higher weight to the zoo hypothesis being true.
You are stating “I think ultra-intelligent machine will believe X”, but this simply means that you believe X, so why the talk about ultra-intelligent machines? It serves no purpose.
(It looks like LW version of the “All reasonable/rational/Scottish people believe X” dark side rhetoric is “Ultra-intelligent machines will believe X”.)
(b) is counterfactual today. Nobody can calculate how many nearby star systems should have given birth to star faring civilizations—since nobody knows p(origin of life). We can’t even make life from plausible inorganic materials yet. We are clueless—and thus highly uncertain.
OK. I think that if an ultra-intelligent AI determines that (a), (b) and (c) are correct then the zoo hypothesis is probably the solution to Fermi’s paradox. I think this last sentence “serves a purpose” because (a), (b) and (c) seem somewhat reasonable and thus after reading my post a reader would give a higher weight to the zoo hypothesis being true.
So you are using the ultra-intelligent AI as a kind of Omega, then? To establish that (a), (b), and (c) are definitely true?