Forecasters deliberately overstate the probablity of rain, following the apparent user preferences. Most people are poorly calibrated to the point of only explicitly noticing “rained without prediction”, and the cost asymmetry points in the same direction.
Making things more complicated is that in many cities it can be raining in one suburb and dry in another, and accurately communicating such spatial heterogeneity is almost as difficult as forecasting it.
Forecasters deliberately overstate the probablity of rain, following the apparent user preferences. Most people are poorly calibrated to the point of only explicitly noticing “rained without prediction”, and the cost asymmetry points in the same direction.
Making things more complicated is that in many cities it can be raining in one suburb and dry in another, and accurately communicating such spatial heterogeneity is almost as difficult as forecasting it.