think there were a couple setbacks in the form of ice ages along the way somewhere, but what we’d observed as a general trend throughout the homo sapiens’ time on Earth is more population ⇒ better technology ⇒ easier life ⇒ more population.
I don’t know if the ice-ages contributed that much to serious reductions in technology. But the Black Death did cause a substantial drop in total population.
Not convinced? US population US Patents per year I know correlation does not imply causation, but come on.
Well, there are more complicating factors here as well, such as what is being patented. There are a lot more things now where minor improvements can still occur. But how many of those patents are in the category of things like the wheel that as you observe are large game changers? Pretty few.
Also keep in mind that as we learn more it takes more to improve on existing ideas because one needs to start with more understanding. Moreover, discoveries and inventions naturally have much of the low-hanging fruit picked first (that’s not always true. The Diffie-Hellman algorithm and RSA are both ideas that could have been constructed in the late 18th century but the supporting technologies and motivation didn’t exist.) and so the level of intelligence and background knowledge it takes to pluck the lowest remaining fruit may steadily go up.
I don’t know if the ice-ages contributed that much to serious reductions in technology. But the Black Death did cause a substantial drop in total population.
You’re right. I meant they reduced population. Need to fix that.
Well, there are more complicating factors here as well, such as what is being patented. There are a lot more things now where minor improvements can still occur. But how many of those patents are in the category of things like the wheel that as you observe are large game changers? Pretty few.
Computers, cell phones and the ballpoint pen come to mind over the last century.
Besides, figuring out that you could attach buttons to childrens’ coats as well as adults’ wasn’t a big HG invention.
Overall, I agree with your post. If I ever get seriously interested in this problem, I will have to look up quantitative “values” for the quality of patents, and worldwide patents and inventions rather than just the US.
As for low-hanging fruit, Moore’s Law comes to mind. But again, I would have to actually study it further if I am to speak intelligently on the matter. And besides, that’s why the world needs more people many standard deviations up from the mean, because those are the people who move progress forward.
I don’t know if the ice-ages contributed that much to serious reductions in technology. But the Black Death did cause a substantial drop in total population.
Well, there are more complicating factors here as well, such as what is being patented. There are a lot more things now where minor improvements can still occur. But how many of those patents are in the category of things like the wheel that as you observe are large game changers? Pretty few.
Also keep in mind that as we learn more it takes more to improve on existing ideas because one needs to start with more understanding. Moreover, discoveries and inventions naturally have much of the low-hanging fruit picked first (that’s not always true. The Diffie-Hellman algorithm and RSA are both ideas that could have been constructed in the late 18th century but the supporting technologies and motivation didn’t exist.) and so the level of intelligence and background knowledge it takes to pluck the lowest remaining fruit may steadily go up.
You’re right. I meant they reduced population. Need to fix that.
Computers, cell phones and the ballpoint pen come to mind over the last century.
Besides, figuring out that you could attach buttons to childrens’ coats as well as adults’ wasn’t a big HG invention.
Overall, I agree with your post. If I ever get seriously interested in this problem, I will have to look up quantitative “values” for the quality of patents, and worldwide patents and inventions rather than just the US.
As for low-hanging fruit, Moore’s Law comes to mind. But again, I would have to actually study it further if I am to speak intelligently on the matter. And besides, that’s why the world needs more people many standard deviations up from the mean, because those are the people who move progress forward.