If I recall correctly, one of Hanson’s original arguments for prediction markets was that “insider trading” would drive prices closer to true probabilities. Insider trading was meant to be a feature, not a bug.
’Course, it’s not necessarily very useful to get that kind of signal just hours in advance....
If I recall correctly, one of Hanson’s original arguments for prediction markets was that “insider trading” would drive prices closer to true probabilities. Insider trading was meant to be a feature, not a bug.
’Course, it’s not necessarily very useful to get that kind of signal just hours in advance....