I think a 10x larger bet would be more than 10x as suspicious. There are more than 10x as many people who would bet 80k on low-medium conviction bets than 800k.
Also liquidity would dry up, quickly, once liquidity providers see the obvious insider, so the reward would be much less than 10x.
Also I see the disutility from suspicion as closer to a step function: you really do not want your suspicion to rise to a level that would warrant a serious investigation. Which is kind of binary, closely-related to the risk of traders framing you as an insider beforehand, and I would think 80k is already pretty close to this threshold (but I’m not familiar with how liquid this market was).
I don’t share that intuition, from a few angles.
I think a 10x larger bet would be more than 10x as suspicious. There are more than 10x as many people who would bet 80k on low-medium conviction bets than 800k.
Also liquidity would dry up, quickly, once liquidity providers see the obvious insider, so the reward would be much less than 10x.
Also I see the disutility from suspicion as closer to a step function: you really do not want your suspicion to rise to a level that would warrant a serious investigation. Which is kind of binary, closely-related to the risk of traders framing you as an insider beforehand, and I would think 80k is already pretty close to this threshold (but I’m not familiar with how liquid this market was).